Analysing the PC Hangover.. the Morning After the Night Before

Well.

Today we wake up with the knowledge that the next Premier of this Province will not be Ed Stelmach.

As the saying goes, we live in interesting times.

This past week, I was having lunch with a former PC MLA we were crystal-balling where things were going in our Province.  I suggested that I was curious to see Ted Morton's new website - with Ted looking very "leader-like", with nary a nod to Premier Stelmach..  and I mused that Ted would be leading the PC Party into the next election.

Ron was sceptical, as there is no requirement of a leadership review in the PC Party until after the next election, unless a motion to require a review was passed by a majority of members.

I suggested that, noting Ted Morton's website, a not-so-subtle message may have been given to the Premier that he can go easy, or he can go hard - and I posited that the Premier was likely to step down.

Well.

Call me Nostradamus.

So - what now?

Well, no longer being a PC member, I don't have any "insider" gossip to suggest what's going on - but I think we can speculate.

Firstly - when David Swann suggests that the PC Party is losing to support to the Wild Rose Alliance AND the Liberals - well, as is typical of Dr. Swann, he's delusional.  Unhappy PC Members (like myself) have moved to one party - and that party is the Wild Rose Alliance.

That being said - there will be some constituencies where the split vote could give the odd seat to the Liberal party - but those will be few and far between.

The real risk of being deposed from the power is clearly from the Wild Rose Alliance.

And so, forget about Dave Hancock, Thomas Lukaszuk, Gene Zwozdesky, Iris Evans - or anyone north of Calgary.  Been there, done that - the party will not go that route again.  The PC Party is all about holding onto power - and the conventional wisdom inside the party is that money buys elections.. so expect the leader to come from oiltown.

Now - Ron Liepert could, perhaps have made a charge - but his handling of health care could fairly be said to be abysmal and while he's now the Minister of Energy, he doesn't have a legitimate shot.

I've heard rumours that Alison Redford might be interested.  Not going to happen - she's too green and hasn't done anything to distinguish herself.  As a lawyer, I can tell you that the handling of Justice looks like Barack Obama's wet dream - all full of heavy-handed government intervention and spending without appreciable results.

Lloyd Snelgrove?  Not from Calgary and, as President of the Treasury Board since 2006, and therefore the over-seer of the worst bout of pointless over-spending since the Getty government - he's the last person the party will see as the leader-to-be.

They want a fiscal hawk, and, just as important, they know full-well that as bright and dedicated as Premier Stelmach has been - he hasn't shown the personal charisma to capture the imagination of Albertans.  Take a good look at the PC caucus - and ask, "who fits this bill?"

The closest one, clearly, is Ted Morton.

Look to see a tepid leadership race, perhaps with Lukaszuk, Snelgrove and Liepert and at least one woman for appearances sake - probably Iris Evans or Alison Redford - going through the motions, possibly to raise their profile for future shot.  Ultimately, however, the "election" of Ted Morton will amount to a coronation.

Too little, too late?

A lot could happen between now and 2013, but Nostradumus says, look to a PC Minority government with a strong showing by the Wild Rose - resulting in a government than can no longer take average Albertans for granted, and which will have it's toes kept to the fire by a true conservative conscience.